Sunday, June 22, 2025

The Dead End of U.S./Israeli War Against Iran

 By Kamran Nayeri, June 22, 2025


Author's note: What follows is a free translation of an essay I wrote and sent for the online socialist journal Critique of Political Economy (نقد اقتصاد سیاسی) in Iran on June 19. Because of the ongoing Israeli and U.S. attacks, Internet service has been compromised, and the work of an online journal has been delayed. Therefore, this translation appears before the publication of the original Farsi version. Writing about a highly dynamic series of events, such as this war, is a challenging task. Thus, I appeal to the reader to focus on the main line of my argument and forgive any details that may seem less important at this time.  Although I anticipated Trump's decision to attack Iran's nuclear sites, it happened yesterday, a significant event as it brings the U.S. into direct war with the Islamic Republic, which U.S. administrations had avoided since 1979. Clearly, Trump's action has not ended the conflict but elevated it, and it is likely to lead to the Islamic Republic's decision to produce nuclear weapons as a deterrent.  KN.

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A bloody war has broken out between the Zionist colonial-settler State and the Islamic Republic. On Friday, June 13, about 100 fighter jets targeted parts of Iran's nuclear program, including the uranium enrichment facility at Natanz, some missile production sites, and residential neighborhoods in Tehran, and assassinating several commanders of the Guard of the Islamic Revolution (commonly mistranslated as "Revolutionary Guards"), senior politicians and nuclear scientists were assassinated. 

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has declared that he will continue this war "for as long as necessary" to destroy the Islamic Republic's nuclear capabilities. This is a vague and unattainable goal. Israel does not have the means to destroy the Fordow facility, which is deep underground.  As a result, Donald Trump has announced that he will enter the U.S. into this war by using the 30,000-pound "bunker buster" bomb that only B2 bombers can deploy. Trump has also called for the Islamic Republic's "unconditional surrender." 

Thus, a war that started under the pretext of preventing the Islamic Republic from acquiring nuclear weapons has turned into a war to overthrow that regime by U.S. imperialism and the Zionist regime in just a few days. Even though a majority of the American public opposes a U.S. war with Iran, and even part of the coalition that brought Trump to power opposes it, the Democratic Party leaders in Congress seem to support it, as they have not mentioned the constitutional requirement that gives only Congress the power to declare war. 

Thus, the Middle East is facing a long-anticipated war that risks spreading to the region and threatening the region with nuclear contamination. 

 

There is no doubt that Israel's preparations for an invasion of Iran and Donald Trump’s negotiations with the Islamic Republic were a political game to surprise the Iranian regime. The Times of Israel confirmed this fact on the same day Israel attacked Iran (Berman, June 13, 2025). 

The Origin of the War

The Mohammad Reza Pahlavi dictatorship installed by the August 1953 CIA/MI6 coup d’état was overthrown through a year-long mobilization of millions of Iranians, general strikes against it cumulating in the February 1979 insurrection. The Shah's regime and the Israeli state, also created with significant interventions by Britain and the United States, were the bastions of Western imperialism against the Arab revolution and the influence of the Soviet Union in the Middle East. The 1979 revolution dissolved the Cold War military alliance of CENTO. It destroyed the major power in the Middle East that supported the Zionist colonial Settler regime in Palestine and the apartheid regime in South Africa. Western imperialism lost a powerful ally in the Middle East. 

Trusted by the people due to his irreconcilable opposition to Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, Ayatollah Khomeini was able to establish a provisional government. At the same time, he organized the Revolutionary Council, whose members he chose and dominated by his clerical supporters, to lay the foundations for an Islamic government in Iran. In his treatise, Velayat-e Faqih (The Rule of Islamic Jurisprudence) in the early 1970s, Ayatollah Khomeini argued that Muslims everywhere lived under non-Islamic governments and in the absence of Imam Mahdi, the final Twelfth Imam in Twelver Shia Islam, who is believed to be in occultation (hidden) and will reappear someday, a learned ayatollah a group of such ayatollahs can and must form an Islamic government so that Islamic laws can be implemented.  His goal was to achieve the political unity of all Shiites in the Middle East. The Islamic Republic in Iran was established according to this view, and it became the basis of its foreign policy towards Israel, Palestine, the governments in the region, and the United States. 

From the first day after the February 1979 insurrection that toppled Shah's regime, new Islamic institutions and organizations, especially the Guards Corps of the Islamic Revolution (Guards), the Islamic Revolution Committees, and later the Basij of the Dispossessed as a paramilitary organization attached to the Guards formed a vast armed force to protect the Islamic regime. At the same time, the Islamic Regime dissolved or destroyed all grassroots and democratic movements and independent political parties. Thus, an expansionist Islamic capitalist state was formed in Iran by repression of the Iranians and in conflict with regional and world powers. 

On November 4, 1979, Students Following the Imam's Line occupied the U.S. embassy and held 55 of its employee’s hostage for 444 days. Thus, the first set of sanctions against Iran was imposed by the United States. Among these sanctions was the prohibition on the sale of arms to Iran, which effectively eroded its air force, which the Shah had built up by purchasing F-4 fighter jets from the United States, along with training Iranian air force pilots in the United States.  Iran was dependent on the U.S. government and companies for the maintenance and repair of its air force. 

With Saddam Hussein's invasion of Iran and the eight-year war that ensued, the Islamic Republic prioritized the development of a domestic arms industry. Military commentators agree that its drone and missile industries are at the highest level in the Middle East. The experience of eight years of war with Iraq and then cooperation with Islamic military groups in other countries of the Middle East has created a vast and experienced military cadre for the Islamic Republic. 

 

In September 2011, the Bushehr nuclear reactor, designed by the Germans but built by the Russians, was put into operation. The Islamic Republic began a nuclear enrichment program for nuclear reactor fuel and medical uses.  

Iran's nuclear program began in the 1950s after the overthrow of the nationalist government of Mohammad Mossadegh by the CIA and the British MI6 because Mossadegh had nationalized the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company on March 15, 1951.

Mohammad Reza Pahlavi's nuclear program was part of Dwight D. Eisenhower's "Atoms for Peace" program. This program was expanded in the 1970s with plans to install nuclear reactors, but the 1979 revolution disrupted these plans.

The Islamic Republic revived the plan to build a nuclear power plant in Bushehr during the Iran-Iraq War. In 1995, Clinton imposed new sanctions on Iran's nuclear program in response to the Islamic Republic's support for anti-U.S. and anti-Israel Islamic groups, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza Strip. Clinton banned U.S. investment in the energy sectors and trade and investment in Iran. 

 Successive U.S. cabinets have imposed additional sanctions on Iran. 

Colonialism, Imperialism, and the Middle East

The U.S. policy toward Iran and the Middle East is a continuation of the British policy, which controlled a significant part of the Middle East, along with French imperialism, after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire at the end of World War I. 

The League of Nations, formed by four Allied countries after World War I—Britain, France, Italy, and Japan (the United States did not participate) —gave Britain the mandate for Palestine. In 1917, the British laid the groundwork for the creation of Israel in Palestine through the Balfour Declaration.  In a letter from British Foreign Secretary Arthur Balfour to Lord Rothschild, who was a Zionist, he promised to create a "state for the Jewish people" in Palestine. The Rothschilds, who were a Jewish banking and finance family, were considered the richest in the world in the late 19th century. 

At that time, Jews were a small minority in Palestine. 

Zionism as a European Colonial-Settler Ideology

The ideology of Zionism emerged in Central and Eastern Europe as a colonial-settler ideology prevalent in 19th-century Europe in response to waves of antisemitism there. Progressive Jews, of course, were looking for another way to overcome antisemitism. In the mid-19th century, the Young Hegelians raised and discussed the problem of antisemitism. Bruno Bauer in his book The Jewish Question (1843), argued that Jews could only achieve emancipation by abandoning their religious consciousness through the establishment of a secular state. Karl Marx, in "On the Jewish Question" (1843), criticized Bauer's assumption that a secular state solves the problem of religion. Marx pointed to the pervasiveness of religion in the United States, which, unlike Prussia, had a secular state. For Marx, Bauer's mistake was that he did not distinguish between political emancipation and human emancipation. Political emancipation is compatible with holding religious views, which can lead to religious bias. As a result, Marx argued that the liberation of the Jews (and others) from the bondage of religious thought lies in the complete emancipation of humanity, which would ensure the absence of the need for any religion.  Marx, however, acknowledged that human emancipation is impossible "within the framework of the "hitherto existing world order." 

The revolutionary socialist movement adhered to Marx's view on religion and antisemitism.  The relationship between the Bolshevik Party and the "General Jewish Workers' Alliance" (the Bund) serves as an example. The Jewish workers in Lithuania, Poland, and Russia formed the Bund in 1897. The Bolshevik policy of staunchly opposing antisemitism and fighting for a socialist revolution resulted in the revolutionary wing of the Bund splitting and joining the Communist Party. In 1918, the Council of People's Commissars issued a decree condemning all forms of antisemitism and calling on workers and peasants to fight against it.

After Lenin died in 1924, Stalin, who was organizing a bureaucratic counterrevolution, occasionally resorted to antisemitism as his main rival, Leon Trotsky, came from a Ukrainian Jewish family.  In the period that Stalin sought an alliance with Hitler, Stalin again used antisemitism. From late 1944 onwards, Stalin pursued a policy of supporting Zionism. 

In this way, Israel was created with the support of the imperialists and Stalinists. The Stalinist parties continued to support Israel. 

Israel as a Colonial Settler State

Despite the Zionist propaganda that tried to justify the occupation of Palestine based on myths of the return of the Jews to The Promised Land, the Zionist Movement initially had other places for colonization.  For example, in 1903, at the Sixth Zionist Congress, Theodor Herzl, "The Father of Modern Zionism," proposed Uganda as the location of the Jewish state. However, after the First World War (WWI) and the division of the Middle East and North Africa between British and French imperialism, Palestine became part of the British Mandate from 1931 to 1948. Balfour Declaration was initially a promise made in a letter from Arthur James Balfour, Foreign Secretary of the United Kingdom, to Lord Walter Rothschild,  a Zionist tycoon, on November 2, 1917. The Rothschild banking and finance family was considered the wealthiest in nineteenth-century Europe. 

 

Subsequently, Zionists began to migrate to Palestine and acquire land through the purchase and use of force, including terrorism. For example, Irgun, a Zionist paramilitary terrorist force,  was headed by young Menachem Begin, who later became the prime minister of Israel.  

On November 29, 1947, the United Nations, which was dominated by the Allied powers,  voted to divide Palestine into two independent states, one Palestinian and the other Jewish. According to this plan, Jerusalem was declared an international city. The plan was implemented on October 1, 1948, which the Zionists celebrate as "Independence Day." However, the Palestinians and the Arab regimes saw the partition of Palestine as another example of Western imperialism's interference in their land and opposed it. At that time, there were approximately 1,300,000 Palestinian Arabs and 600,000 Jews (some of whom were  Palestinian Jews who thus became citizens of Israel) living in Palestine. 

Thus, the Zionist movement and its imperialist supporters have created a Frankenstein in the Promised Land: a reliable military base of Western imperialism located in the heart of the Middle East and North Africa. 

According to the Federation of American Scientists, Israel began a push to acquire nuclear weapons immediately right after it was established. The search for uranium began in 1949, and the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission was established in 1952. On October 3, 1957, France and Israel signed an agreement to build a 24-megawatt reactor (although the cooling systems and nuclear waste facilities were designed for a reactor with three times this capacity), all under the guise of establishing a chemical plant. All this was carried out secretly outside the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspection regime.  In 1968,  the CIA published a report on Israel's nuclear weapons production. Although the United States was aware of Israel's nuclear ambitions and activities, as a strategic ally in the Middle East, it was allowed to join the small group of states with nuclear weapons (the Nuclear Club). 

While Israel is a member of the IAEA, it is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). This is a significant difference because membership in the IAEA gives Israel access to certain benefits and services related to nuclear technologies and fosters international nuclear cooperation. Failure to sign the NPT means that Israel will not be subject to full inspections by the IAEA.  As such, the Israeli government neither officially denies nor acknowledges the possession of nuclear weapons.  Currently, Israel receives $3.8 billion in military aid from the United States annually. Although a UN resolution created Israel, it has never been reprimanded by the United Nations for repeated violations of international law thanks to the veto power of the United States in the Security Council. Israel was a staunch supporter of the apartheid regime in South Africa but has opposed any anti-imperialist and revolutionary movement in the Middle East and around the world.  It has supported the U.S. war in Indochina but opposed the Nicaraguan Revolution of 1979   and is one of the few countries that voted against the U.S. lifting the embargo at the annual meeting of the United Nations General Assembly. 

Thus, the cause of Jews fleeing anti-Semitism in Europe and the Nazi Holocaust, especially those who came to Palestine with socialist ideals, has been betrayed by Zionist leaders. Worse still, many of them have become racist oppressors who serve colonial and imperialist interests while opposing the Palestinian movement for self-determination and the Arab revolution.

In contrast, Iran is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The treaty was signed in 1968 and ratified in 1970 by the Shah's regime. However, due to the hostility of the United States and Western imperialism after the 1979 revolution, numerous concerns and reports about Iran's compliance with the safeguards and obligations of the treaty have been raised to oppose Iran's use of nuclear energy, a right given to other states.

Why Israel and the U.S. are allowed to have a nuclear program and nuclear bombs, but Iran is not even allowed to enrich uranium for peaceful means? 

Did not the Islamic Republic sign the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), signed on July 14, 2015, with the P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) to allow for regular inspection of Iran's nuclear activities to ensure it is for peaceful means? Why did Israel oppose the treaty, and Trump tore it apart? 

Ten years ago, after the signing of the JCPOA, I wrote in an article titled "Their milk wins, our line loses":

"The July 14 agreement between 5+1 and the Islamic Republic reflects the balance of power between Iran and imperialism, headed by the United States.  America's pyrrhic victory in the Gulf wars and subsequent rise and unraveling of the Arab Spring has resulted in region-wide instability where extremist Islamic organizations like Al-Quada and Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) that routinely use terror have gained ground.  Meanwhile, the influence of the Islamic Republic has increased in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and the Gaza Strip.  The Islamic Republic has been an ascending force in the region whose interests have coincided with those of the U.S. when Washington invaded and occupied Afghanistan and Iraq and now that both regimes are engaged in the fight against ISIS.  At the same time, a majority of the Islamic Republic's regime realizes that their immediate interests in dismantling the sanctions regime and pursuing economic development, as well as their strategic regional ambitions, are best served by reaching an understanding with the United States.  Thus, the Iran nuclear agreement is a win-win for American imperialism and its allies and the clerical capitalist Islamic Republic.  However, it would be a mistake to suppose that the agreement will prevent future wars—conflicts can arise over implementation, and the balance of power can change in the future, making Iran vulnerable again.  Nor would the agreement make the Middle East and the world safer from nuclear "accidents" or nuclear wars (emphasis added, Nayeri, 2015)."

Israel's war against Iran has now confirmed my argument that the agreement signed ten years ago is no longer possible due to changing power relations in the region. As Israeli and American policymakers have repeatedly insisted, the Islamic Republic has never been as politically weak as it is today. The dictatorship of Bashir al-Assad in Syria, which was an ally of the Islamic Republic, has been overthrown, and the current Sunni Syrian regime prefers closer ties with Washington and has stayed quiet in the Israeli attack on Iran. Armed forces allied with the Islamic Republic, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, have been weakened, and their influence in Iraq has diminished. By creating a tyrannical clerical capitalist regime, oppressing women, religious minorities, oppressed nationalities, interfering in the private lives of citizens, suppressing any independent organization, suppressing all forms of protest, attacking, imprisoning, torturing, and executing its critics and opponents, the Islamic Republic has been discredited in the eyes of most Iranians and the world public opinion.  Adherence to neoliberal policies and the inability to manage the economy, according to official accounts, 40 percent of the population lives below the poverty line. The 1979 revolution made it possible for the redistribution of income, which elevated the lot of many poorer Iranians, but this proved temporary, and now deep class divisions and government corruption are evident everywhere. 

 

The key motivation for the Islamic Republic's negotiations with the United States has been the lifting of sanctions to reduce the economic crisis. The regime used uranium enrichment as a bargaining chip to reduce, if not end, economic sanctions. 

Thus, the Islamic government project undertaken by Ayatollah Khomeini has reached a dead end. 

This situation provided Israel and the United States an opportunity to launch a military attack on Iran with an eye on the possibility of overthrowing the Islamic Republic. However, unlike Syria, where an alternative force had been established over the years, there is no such an alternative existing in Iran. 

Furthermore, both Israel and the United States are in relative decline. As the year and a half of Israel's genocidal war in Gaza shows, despite killing more than 55,000 Palestinians, injuring nearly 120,000, and displacing the majority of the inhabitants of Gaza, Israel has not yet been able to win the release of all its hostages or defeat Hamas. Israel is politically isolated and more isolated in public opinion than at any time in the past, as its prime minister, Netanyahu, is wanted by the International Court for war crimes. Zionism has proven a dead-end as much as political Islam. 

U.S. imperialism has been facing a relative decline, particularly against the rising power of China as a global power, while it has been challenged by regional powers such as Russia in Ukraine, Iran in the Middle East, and China in the Pacific region. The second election of Trump as president demonstrated the increasing polarization within the political class, as every four years, the newly elected president cancels many of the policies implemented by his predecessor. This trend is entirely the opposite of what the U.S. economic ruling class needs. 

 

The Ecocentric Socialist Alternative 

The 1979 Revolution was suppressed and eventually crushed by 1983 through Ayatollah Khomeini's project of Velayat-e Faqih (rule of Islamic jurisprudence), which aimed to establish and consolidate the Islamic Republic. At least two generations of Iranians were demoralized in the process: the generation of the 1979 Revolution and the generation that was born and grew up after the Islamic Republic came to power. The former was mainly a victim of despair due to defeat, and the latter has been a victim of ignorance regarding the reality of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi's dictatorship, the secular nature of the 1979 revolution, and the reasons for its failure. Out of ignorance about the democratic anti-imperialist goals of the revolution, this generation holds the revolutionaries responsible for the creation and crimes of the Islamic Republic even though they were the first victims of this regime. As a result, some of them have been attracted to the propaganda of the United States, the remnants of the regime of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, and even Israel. These same people have become anti-Arab and anti-Palestinian, an echo of the Fars nationalism of the Pahlavi monarchy. 

However, the 1979 Revolution was a great historical movement for independence, freedom, and social justice (استقلال، آزادی، عدالت اجتماعی). It was a movement that had the potential to create the broadest and deepest form of democracy based on the grassroots movements of workers, peasants, oppressed nationalities, youth, and students. Of course, these organizations had weaknesses and flaws.  However, had they not been dissolved or suppressed by the Islamic Republic, it would have been entirely possible for them to develop as the basis of a government of the people, by the people, and for the people, establishing the first democratic government in Iran's history. 

 

In the Russian socialist revolution of October 1917, it was this process that determined the socialist character of the revolution, not merely the leadership of the Bolsheviks and the nationalization of the economic infrastructure. As Lenin remarked: 

"The socialist character of Soviet, i.e., proletarian, democracy, as concretely applied today, lies first in the fact that the electors are the working and exploited people; the bourgeoisie is excluded. Secondly, it lies in the fact that all bureaucratic formalities and restrictions of elections are abolished; the people themselves determine the order and time of elections, and are completely free to recall any elected person. Thirdly, it lies in the creation of the best mass organization of the vanguard of the working people, i.e., the proletariat engaged in large-scale industry, which enables it to lead the vast mass of the exploited, to draw them into independent political life, to educate them politically by their own experience; therefore for the first time a start is made by the entire population in learning the art of administration, and in the beginning to administer (Lenin, April 1918).”

Policy Framework

Even if the working people take over state power, the question still arises as to what framework should be adopted for policymaking. 

Some Native Indian tribes used a golden rule: choose a policy that will be good for the next seven generations. As the Native Americans considered themselves an inseparable part of nature, the good policy must also be good for the ecosystem of which we are a small part. 

In addition to a consistent policy to create the infrastructure for democracy from below, Iran's economic structure must change to create a society that is compatible with the well-being of its people and the ecosystem of the Middle East and the world, ensuring social justice. The current war demonstrates the dead-end of Islamic fundamentalism, Zionism, and imperialism. However, we know that the world is facing several existential crises, such as global warming and climate chaos, the Sixth Extinction, recurrent pandemics, and nuclear annihilation. The root cause is the anthropocentric industrial capitalist civilization. 

Science and technology are not value-free. They have been, especially since the Scientific Revolution of the 17th century, instruments for the domination and control of nature, allowing for its plunder for wealth and power (Nayeri, 2021). The fossil fuel-based economy contradicts the need for a transition to a green economy in every way.  Nuclear technology, whether for energy or nuclear weapons, is inherently dangerous to the ecosystem and life on the planet  (Friends of the Earth undated). As the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster in March 2011 and the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki by the United States in August 1945 demonstrated. As the recent conflict between Pakistan and India showed and, the danger posed by bombing Iran's nuclear facilities by Israel and possibly the United States demonstrates.  Progress toward a healthier, safer, and better world requires the elimination of all nuclear weapons and nuclear energy.  

Here, I am only referring to the climate crisis in the Middle East. In 2023, the United Nations Climate Change Risk Assessment Group published a report on the future of the Middle East and North Africa. The World Bank provided an analysis of its economic impact (World Bank 2023).

The World Bank predicts that if climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions is not prevented, real annual GDP in countries in the Middle East and North Africa will decline by 1.1% by mid-century, and poor and vulnerable families will increasingly bear the resulting damage. Despite the unique characteristics of the needs and facilities for water, energy, and food security in the countries of the region, their interdependencies are the only way out of this crisis that requires their cooperation. Structural challenges, primarily related to the lack of financial resources, inadequate reforms, and limited resources, as well as the lack of commitment from capitalist state institutions, increase the likelihood of exacerbating the vulnerabilities caused by climate change in countries in the Middle East and North Africa.

The solutions proposed by the UN research group, including the "green transition" from existing fossil economies to one based on renewable energy (mainly solar and wind), will significantly reduce the costs of electricity generation. Such a transition would entail economic benefits, energy security, and long-term financial and job creation advantages. Eliminating oil and gas flaring and reducing methane emissions in oil and gas-producing countries could lead to significant economic benefits while also reducing greenhouse gas emissions. 

Another scientific study was published this week (Santer et al., 2025) that provides evidence that the onset of atmospheric warming could have been documented as early as 1880. In fact, in 1896, the Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius had shown that the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere had doubled. Today, there is no longer any doubt that atmospheric warming and the climate crisis are caused by the emissions of greenhouse gases resulting from human-centered industrial capitalist civilization (Nayeri, April 2023). 

Of course, the United Nations research group does not address the human-centered industrial capitalist civilization as the root cause of the climate disaster. The United Nations is, in fact, the organization of non-allied capitalist states, not an independent organization of united working people. 

A group of academics and environmentalists has long argued that the current system pursues unlimited economic growth while providing us with limited possibilities on the planet we live on. The confluence of these two realities is the cause of ecosystem crises. Some of them have created the degrowth movement. Unfortunately, most of them do not realize that growth in the capitalist system is driven by the system's need for capital accumulation, and the accumulation of capital depends on profit, which is only possible by creating surplus value (Nayeri, 2022). However, contrary to Marxist belief, the source of surplus value is not only the exploitation of the worker but also the plundering of non-human nature (Nayeri, December 2023). 

As a result, the only way out of the existential crises and other social problems, including the wars in the Middle East, is to transition to Ecocentric Socialism. This vision and goal also represent a redefinition of the type of human life free from all forms of alienation in a society where money and power deteriorate as quickly as love for nature and human solidarity become part of our daily lives.

In Iran, this process will require the rejection of imperialism, Zionism, and religious dictatorship to open a window to the final emancipation of humanity.

References:

Bruno Bauer. The Jewish Question. 1843.

Berman, Lazar. “How an Israeli-American Deception Campaign Lulled Iran into a False Sense of Security.” Times of Israel, June 13, 2025.

Bruno Bauer. The Jewish Question. 1843.

Friends of the Earth. “Is Nuclear Power Bad for the Earth? No date.

Lenin, V.I. “The Immediate Tasks of the Soviet Government.” April 1918.

Marx, Karl. On the Jewish Question. 1843.

Nayeri, Kamran. “Heads They Win, Tails We Lose: On Iran Nuclear Agreement.” Our Place in the World: A Journal of Ecosocialism. August 12, 2015.

______________. “The Case for Ecocentric Socialism.” Our Place in the World: A Journal of Ecosocialism. July 22, 2021.

______________. “On Degrowth.”  Our Place in the World: A Journal of Ecosocialism. July 24, 2021.

______________. “The Labor Theory of Value and Exploitation of Nonhumans: The Case of the Meat Industry.”  Our Place in the World: A Journal of Ecosocialism. December 31, 2022..

______________. “The Anthropocentric Industrial Capitalist Civilization and Ecological Crises.” Our Place in the World: A Journal of Ecosocialism. April 1, 2023..

Santer, Benjamin, Susan Salmon, David W. I. Thomason, Yaowei Li. “Human influence on climate detectable in the late 19th century.” PANS, June 16, 202.

World Bank. MENA Country Climate and Development Report: Climate change Action in the Middle East and North Africa (key insights from the reports).November 2023. 

Thursday, April 17, 2025

Farewell to My Love, Panther (2013?--March 11, 2025)

By Kamran Nayeri, April 17, 2025 



The chemistry of the mind is different from the chemistry of love. The mind is careful, suspicious, and advances little by little. It advises, “Be careful, protect yourself.” Whereas love says, “Let go of yourself!” The mind is strong, never falls, while love hurts oneself and falls into ruins. But isn’t it in ruins that we mostly find treasures? A broken heart hides so many treasures.

   ---- Shams Tabrizi

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At about 2:30 in the afternoon of Tuesday, March 11, I let go of Panther as if parting with a part of my soul.

In early January, he was diagnosed with malignant mast cell tumor. Mast cell tumor is a disease of specific white blood cells responsible for protecting the body against the invasion of foreign agents. The side effect is nausea. The oncologist suggested surgery or chemotherapy. However, based on experience, I decided not to put Panther, who was about 12 years old, through such invasive treatments with dubious results.

Instead, I opted for palliative care. Panther was put on two medications, one to slow the growth of cancer and help with his appetite, and another to treat nausea. I asked his veterinarian about the proper time for euthanasia to minimize Panther’s suffering. I was told a couple of symptoms, including throwing up.

I had kept Mooshi, one of my early cats who suffered from a neurological disease, alive for three months after she had become paralyzed in her lower body. As I deeply loved Mooshi, I could not let go of her. After I had to euthanize her in November 2016, I realized that she was kept alive too long due to my selfish reasons. I decided not to hang on to my other terminally ill cats if there were reasons to believe they were suffering.

Still, the decision to take your loved one to the veterinarian for euthanasia has been the most difficult for me.

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In the summer of 2013, I noticed a black cat traveling back and forth across the fence that ran parallel to Atascadero Creek.  As I was relatively new to the neighborhood, I thought he might be a neighbor’s cat.  However, soon the cat approached the house, and I noticed him spraying on its four corners to mark it as his own.

I offered him a can of Friskies Prime Turkey Filets, which he gladly ate. It became his favorite can food for the rest of his life.

He looked as if he were no older than a year. A black cat with a white spot on his chest was dumped in the neighborhood. There is a superstition against black cats. According to a recent study, about one-third of cats in U.S. shelters are black cats. The Humane Society in Santa Rosa offers incentives for adopting black cats.

Abandoned cats are scared, hungry, thirsty, and get into fights with resident cats who do not welcome intruders. That is how Panther got a permanent scar on the side of his nose. This is why a big majority of feral cats are feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) positive, which is transmitted through cat bites.

I called him Panther on the suggestion of a young woman who was house-sitting for a neighbor. She thought he looked like a black panther.

On March 26, 2014, I trapped Panther and took him to Analy Veterinarian Hospital where he was examined, tested positive for FIV, received immunization shots, and was neutered. For three weeks, I kept him in the small bathroom. I then allowed him to venture into the rest of the house. One day when I was going to East Bay to visit my elderly parents, Panther found the cat door and took off.

For three months, I did not see Panther. Until, on a long summer evening, he suddenly appeared through the open sliding door to the patio and ran like the wind up the stairs to the loft as Sunny, Mooshi, and I looked on in amazement. Running up the stairs to the loft at high speed became a lifelong habit for Panther. I don't know why he did it or what prompted it at any given time. He just liked to do it.

That evening, Panther came down to eat from the “buffet” of various dry food in dishes on the floor of the living room. After he ate, he left the house through the same sliding door. As it turned out, Panther preferred dry food, although he also ate canned food.

Panther returned every evening and gradually stayed inside the house longer. One evening, I closed off the doors for the night. Panther stayed with us in the house and became part of the family..

Panther’s attitude toward other cats depended on their power relations. He kept a distance from Mooshi, the dominant female cat, but chased Sunny, a gentle orange female cat when they were both in the garden. I had to put a stop to that behavior. While he chased Aggie, the female Siamese cat who lives across the road in my neighbor’s house, he made friends with Loui, a male cat who lived with another neighbor. He liked to hang out with him late at night.  

In 2018, Siah, who is a black male cat, was dumped in the neighborhood. After a few months, Siah began to show up in the garden despite Panther’s attempts to keep him away and eventually made a habit of sitting atop a flat rock in the succulent garden by the steps leading to the house.

On the evening of October 20, 2018, I trapped Siah and took him to Pet Care East, a 24-hour veterinarian hospital. He was kept over overnight, and the next day was neutered and vaccinated. He was also found to be FIV positive.

By 2018, I no longer had any feral cats on Darby Road to take care of and in the house there were only Panther and Siah. However, they had a rough first two years getting used to each other. They occasionally fought and bit each other, causing an infection and a trip to Analy Veterinarian Hospital. The fighting subsided as Siah established himself as dominant. As it turned out, Siah is a very jealous cat who wanted me as his own. He practically took over the bedroom and slept next to me at night.

Panther slept in the loft. Fortunately, cats like to sleep in different spots and gradually, Siah began to sleep sometimes in the loft. This allowed Panther to sleep beside me. A compromise was reached between the two cats. Meanwhile, I helped Panther reclaim more equality with Siah. Siah also began to accept it. One day, I found Siah standing over Panther, who was resting on the scratching pad. Usually, this behavior meant the start of a cat fight. However, this time, he was licking Panther’s forehead as Panther remained relaxed.

Panther and Siah had very different personalities.is While Siah prefers to be in the house Panther loved venturing outdoors. Panther was full of energy and Siah is lethargic, preferring to take naps than to go out. Panther was an early riser. His habit was to use the box at 5 am, and he gradually nagged me to get up and let him out. Siah is a late sleeper. After eating his breakfast, Panther demanded to be brushed. This was a quality time for the two of us when Panther got kisses and love. He had the most beautiful shiny black fur with a heavy undercoat. I was always amazed at how he wanted to go outside when it was freezing cold. Siah, on the other hand, would carefully feel the conditions outside, whether it was safe to go out, and if it was not too cold. If it were cold, he would rush back inside.

After his breakfast and being brushed, Panther always went for a walk. I have no idea where he went, but the neighborhood is almost car-free. Panther’s tour of the neighborhood sometimes lasted until later in the afternoon. He probably had a spot to take a nap.

Panther especially liked being out after dark. Until the last year of his life when he was a senior and compromised by cancer, Panther wanted to take a walk in the neighborhood at night. This habit caused me anxiety due to the presence of coyotes in the neighborhood. However, Panther somehow managed to roam the neighborhood for 11 years without being taken by a coyote. Aside from due diligence, Panther was also a swift mover. This gave him an advantage in the face of danger.

Panther was a very independent and upright cat. He walked with his tail up in the air. He loved to play and always exhausted me without showing any sign that he had had enough. His favorite game was lying on his side on a step to the loft with wild eyes wanting me to tease him with a feathered stick. This game went on until I ran out of energy or time.

Panther enjoyed being massaged. A vocal cat, he demanded it by calling me. Siah did the same initially by nipping my ankle and later when he learned I don’t like it by rubbing himself against my leg. I would put each cat on either side of me on their playground rug and massage them at the same time. Panther loved sunbathing; on warmer days, he liked to lie on his side on the patio, wanting me to massage him.

He was an excellent hunter. When he was young, despite my best efforts to prevent it, he hunted all kinds of small animals and sometimes brought them into the house. Once, he brought in a small jack rabbit that I saved and released in the far corner of the garden. A month before his death, he brought a mole into the small bathroom. Lacking fangs that were recently pulled out due to infection, he could not eat the poor mole, so he let Siah take it.

Panther loved the night scene. As the night began to fall upon us, he wanted to go out. I would leave the front door light on so I could see if he returned through the glass bars on the front door. Some nights, he did not return before my bedtime. Those nights, I had to wake up every hour or so, calling out for him until he showed up. When he showed up, I was glad to see him safe, so I picked him up and kissed him, pleading with him not to do it again. The panther was a big cat, weighing about 16 pounds.

In the last year, burdened by old age and perhaps his cancer, Panther usually just sat on the mat I had for him outside to the left of the front door. Siah would join him, sitting on the doormat, and they enjoyed watching the night creatures go by.

Panther was a strong cat; he could jump to the top of a four-foot-tall dresser, while I had a cat bed, and Siah preferred me to pick him up and put him there. One of his favorite pastimes was to jump atop the well pump housing, which was three feet high, and then jump from there to the top of the water tank, two feet higher, and from there to the roof of the tool shed. There, he would scratch against the wooden post that serves as the nightlight post.  I have videos and photos of him in action.

Unlike Sunny and Siah, Panther was not a lap cat. He didn't like to be held for long and tried to wiggle out of my arms. However, like Mooshi in the last year of her life, just the past year, Panther allowed me to hold him in my arms, pressing him against my chest, and kissing his forehead. Once, I held him in my arms, belly up, with his face facing mine. For the first time, I fully noticed how beautiful his face and eyes were.

I also tried successfully to get the two cats to share the bed with me for the night in his last year of life. I took Panther in my arms to the bed. Once on the bed next to me, Panther felt it was safe. Siah is a jealous cat. Earlier on, Siah would attempt a surprise jump on the bed towards where Panther was, presumably to scare him off the bed. Initially, I had to protect Panther. But after several such experiences, Panther simply stood up to Siah, forcing him to back down. Gradually, Panther learned that the right side of the bed was his while Siah had already learned to sleep at my feet or between my legs. When they settled in, we all slept comfortably and happily. I was able to rub my hands over their bodies while talking sweetly to them.  Just as Siah likes to press against me when he sleeps, Panther too began to press his body against mine at night. Feeling my boys pressing against me made me sleep so much better! We were finally a peaceful family, even though I served as the glue holding Panther and Siah together.

Panther and Siah liked the excursion to the goats’ barn when I took them organic bananas and organic corn chips.  They would follow me like dogs. Those were really happy time as Haydee and Rocky, the two elderly female goats, wagged their little tails at the sight of my

Panther had trained me as I had trained him. In the last year, when we all slept in the same bed, if I got up to use the toilet, he and then Siah would also get up and wanted me to walk with them to the food buffet in the living room. I then had to sit by them and talk sweetly to them as they ate. Seeing them eat with gusto made me happy, as I knew that if Panther stopped eating, I had to put him down.

At night when I had to get up to use the toilet, both cats would get up and wanted me to accompany them to the food buffet. I would do so gladly as Panther was on medication to help his ward off nausea and eat well.

                                                                                *      *      *

When I returned from Costa Rica in December 2024, Panther was suffering from diarrhea. He was given medication that I had to force him to take it, something entirely against my principles. Fortunately, it helped. Then he found to have bacteria in his feces requiring him to take antibiotics.

The last nine months of his life, Panther was excessively eating specific grass. He soon began licking soil and rock in specific places. I thought that was an odd behavior and reported it to his veterinarian a few times. She never responded to my inquiries even though I suggested that Panther was probably self-medicating. I knew something was wrong. On night in early January, he threw up after eating food. An ultrasound found a tumor on his kidney that turned out to be a cancerous mast tumor.

His fate was sealed.

                                                                            *       *      *

Panther hated the ride to the veterinarian hospital. He would continually complain as I drove there. He still complained, but not as much on the way back home. On the afternoon of March 11 as I drove us to the veterinarian hospital, he did not complain as much. His voice was not the usual voice. Tears were running down my face as I tried to comfort him: “Panther, this would be the last ride to the hospital.”

After Panther’s demis,e I buried him next to the graves of other cats I loved under the redwood trees. I then sank into depression that is not quite over yet. Everywhere in this house I look, there is a memory of Panther.

This is what Rumi taught us in a short poem: “We don’t get to choose grief.”

“We don’t know how or when it strikes.

Who or what we’ll lose.

It descends upon us all at once, and it

never quite leaves. Whoever has

endured loss knows that we don’t

recover from grief.”

  --- Rumi

 

 

Tuesday, March 4, 2025

درباره‌ی مشاجره‌ی ترامپ و زلنسکی در کاخ سفید: اختلاف دو جناح امپریالیسم امریکا


 کامران نیری  نقد اقتصاد سیاسی ۱۳ اسفند ۱۴۰۳


 

      


مشاجره میان دونالد ترامپ و وی دی وانس، رئیس‌جمهور و معاون رئیس‌جمهور آمریکا، با

ولودیمیر زلنسکی رئیس‌جمهور اوکراین در بعدازظهر جمعه ۲۸ فوریه یک‌بار دیگر نشان داد که جنگ در اوکراین هرگز برسر حق تعیین سرنوشت مردم اوکراین نبوده و در واقع جنگی نیابتی[۱] امپریالیسم غرب با امپریالیسم روسیه برای حفظ یا گسترش دایره‌ی نفوذشان است. زلنسکی به کاخ سفید دعوت شده بود تا قرارداد اقتصادی‌ای را که ترامپ پیش‌شرط ادامه‌ی کمک آمریکا به اوکراین می‌داند امضا کند. طبق این قرار داد اوکراین متعهد می‌شد تا به ایالات متحده حق دسترسی به مواد معدنی موسوم به «خاک کمیاب»[۲] را بدهد. ترامپ درصدد آنست که منبع باثباتی را برای این مواد لازم در صنایع متعدد از جمله الکترونیک، فضایی، هسته‌ای، و دفاعی تضمین کند. ایالات متحده خود فاقد این مواد است و چین صادرکننده‌ی عمده‌ی آنها است. زلنسکی نیز می‌خواست که آمریکا امنیت اوکراین را در قبال خطرات آتی از جانب روسیه تضمین کند. قرار بود که امضای این قرار داد راه را برای آتش‌بس و پایان جنگ در اوکراین هموار کند. اما تفاوت نظر زلنسکی و ترامپ در مورد علل شروع جنگ بین و هم‌چنین خواست زلنسکی برای حمایت نظامی رسمی آمریکا از اوکراین باعث بروز مشاجره بین آنان شد.

 اما توافق کلی زلنسکی با این قرارداد نفی این ادعای او است که جنگ اوکراین برای حفظ حق تعیین سرنوشت مردم اوکراین بوده است و نه به‌دلیل هم‌جبهه شدن او با امپریالیسم غرب به‌ویژه امپریالیسم آمریکا علیه امپریالیسم روسیه. مشاجره بین اینان آشکار کرد که در تمامی دوران جنگ و حتی قبل از آن زلنسکی دست‌به‌دامان امپریالیسم آمریکا بوده است. اساساً شروع این جنگ همان‌طور که پیش‌تر مستند کرده‌ام (نیری ۱۴۰۱) ناشی از اصرار زلنسکی به پیوستن اوکراین به ناتو بود که بازوی نظامی امپریالیسم غرب است. حزب دموکرات و گرایش سنتی در حزب جمهوری‌خواه[۳] پیرو دکترین ولفوویتز هستند که خواهان تداوم سیاست‌های جنگ سرد علیه روسیه بعد از فروپاشی اتحاد شوروی است و از گسترش ناتو و عضویت اوکراین در آن حمایت می‌کند. اما ترامپ گرایشی اکنون غالب در حزب جمهوری‌خواه را نمایندگی می‌کند که به این دکترین پایبند نیستند. مشاجره در کاخ سفید حول این اختلاف بین ترامپ و زلنسکی بود که پیش‌تر در سایه‌ی دکترین ولفوویتز از حمایت حکومت بایدن برخوردار شده بود.

علت اساسی شروع جنگ

پوتین طی نطقی در آغاز تهاجم به اوکراین در ۲۴ فوریه ۲۰۲۲ از «گسترش ناتو به‌سوی شرق، نزدیک شدن زیرساخت‌های نظامی آن به مرزهای روسیه» به‌عنوان دلیل این امر یاد کرد.

به‌خوبی می‌دانیم که در ۳۰ سال گذشته مداوم و صبورانه تلاش کرده‌ایم با کشورهای پیشگام ناتو بر سر اصول امنیت برابر و خدشه‌ناپذیر در اروپا به توافق برسیم. در پاسخ به پیشنهاد‌های‌مان، دائماً یا با دروغ و فریب بدبینانه روبرو شدیم یا با تلاش برای اعمال فشار و باج‌خواهی، درحالی‌که ناتو، به‌رغم همه‌ی اعتراضات و نگرانی‌های ما، پیوسته به گسترش خود ادامه می‌داد. ماشین جنگی در حال حرکت است و تکرار می‌کنم دارد به مرزهای ما نزدیک می‌شود. » (نیری همانجا)

زلنسکی بار‌ها، ازجمله چند روز قبل از شروع جنگ، خواهان پذیرش اوکراین در ناتو شده بود. ناتو در سال ۱۹۴۹ با همکاری ۱۲ دولت به ابتکار آمریکا به‌عنوان بخش مهمی از جنگ سرد امپریالیسم غرب علیه اتحاد جماهیر شوروی تأسیس شد. در پاسخ، اتحاد جماهیر شوروی و هفت جمهوری «سوسیالیستی» در اروپای مرکزی و شرقی ، ائتلاف نظامی پیمان ورشو را در مه ۱۹۵۵ تشکیل دادند.

بعد از فروپاشی اتحاد شوروی، پیمان ورشو نیز منحل شد. اما آمریکا نه‌تنها ناتو را منحل نکرد بلکه آن را به سمت مرز‌های روسیه گسترش داد و حتی از آن در اشغال و جنگ در افغانستان استفاده کرد. در واقع ناتو امروز بازوی مسلح امپریالیسم غرب است. برخی از صاحب‌نظران در سیاست خارجی آمریکا ازجمله جان میرشایمر (۲۰۱۹)، دانشمند علوم سیاسی و محقق روابط بین‌المللی آمریکا که به مکتب اندیشه‌ی رئالیستی تعلق دارد، پیش‌تر اعلام خطر کرده بودند که این دکترین به‌ویژه در اوکراین که در سال ۲۰۱۴ با دخالت آمریکا به برکناری ویکتور فدوروویچ یانوکوویچ رئیس‌جمهور طرفدار روسیه منجر شد، به جنگ خواهد انجامید.

سیاست خارجی بایدن در تداوم دکترین ولفوویتز در جنگ اوکراین با حمایت همه‌جانبه‌ی سیاسی، دیپلماتیک، و نظامی از زلنسکی همراه بود. هدف آمریکا منزوی‌ساختن سیاسی روسیه و صدمه‌ی اقتصادی و نظامی به آن تحت عنوان دفاع از دموکراسی و مقابله با خود‌کامگی پوتین به‌عنوان خطری برای تمامی اروپا بوده است. گفتنی است در روسیه پوتین از محبوبیت بیشتری از رییس‌جمهوری‌های هم‌دوره اش در آمریکا برخوردار بوده است (Statistica24 فوریه ۲۰۲۴).

 ایالات متحده و ناتو در همه‌ی جوانب استراتژیک این جنگ شرکت داشته‌اند و سلاح‌های پیشرفته‌ی ارتش اوکراین را عمدتاً آمریکا تأمین کرده است (نک به فهرست کمک‌های نظامی آمریکا که توسط وزارت امور خارجه‌ی آن ارائه شده است (State Department 20 ژانویه ۲۰۲۵). روش کار این بود که برای زلنسکی امکانات متعددی جهت حضور در مجامع سیاست‌گذاری در آمریکا و اروپا و دیگر نقاط فراهم می‌کردند. زلنسکی به نوبه‌ی خود مدعی می‌شد که کشورش توسط روسیه مورد حمله بوده و اشغال شده است و تقاضای کمک‌های متعدد به‌ویژه کمک‌های نظامی با سلاح‌های هرچه پیشرفته‌تر و تهاجمی می‌کرد. سپس بایدن و متحدان اروپایی آمریکا در ناتو آنچه را زلنسکی خواسته بودا فراهم می‌کردند. به این ترتیب جنگ اوکراین با ارتش اوکراین اما تجهیزات و کمک‌های همه‌جانبه‌ی آمریکا و ناتو ادامه می‌یافت. در نتیجه اوکراین در این جنگ اساساً وابسته به امپریالیسم غرب به‌ویژه آمریکا بوده است.

در مورد دکترین ولفوویتز توافق کامل بین سیاستمداران آمریکا نبوده است. گروه کوچکی از جمهوری‌خواهان در کنگره‌ی آمریکا سیاست کناره‌جویی[۴] را ترجیح می‌دادند. با انتخاب ترامپ و سپس انتخاب مجدد وی، ترامپ در صدد بازسازی سیاست خارجی آمریکا است که از یک سو با استفاده‌ی بی‌پرده از قدرت اقتصادی و نظامی همراه است و از سوی دیگر سعی در فیصله دادن به بحران‌های منطقه‌ای دارد. این سیاست بر خلاف مشی «انترناسیونالیسم مداخله‌جویانه»[۵] است که عمدتاً دموکرات‌ها دنبال کرده‌اند (استفنسون ۲۰۲۳). ترامپ در دوره‌ی اول ریاست‌جمهوری‌اش توانست تنش موجود با کره شمالی را عمدتاً از طریق دیپلماسی کاهش دهد. علاوه بر آن، او خواهان تنش‌زدایی در رابطه با روسیه نیز هست.

 در ۱۳ فوریه ترامپ ضمن اشاره به «هزینه و خطر‌های عظیم سلاح‌های هسته‌ی» خواهان مذاکره با روسیه و چین در مورد خلع سلاح هسته‌ای شد (رویس و. ویلسون ۲۴ فوریه ۲۰۲۵). واضح است چنین مذاکراتی چه در مورد خلع سلاح اتمی و چه در مورد جنگ اوکراین، با روسیه‌ستیزی و چین‌ستیزی دموکرات‌ها در دوره‌ی ریاست جمهوری بایدن جور درنمی‌آید.

اختلاف بین این دو جناح امپریالیسم آمریکا در صحنه‌ی اقتصادی نیز دیده می‌شود. دموکرات‌ها خواهان نوسازی اقتصادی بر اساس صنایع و فناوری‌های جدید هستند که به مداخله‌ی بیشتر دولت سرمایه‌داری در اقتصاد تکیه می‌کند. جمهوری‌خواهان مخالف دخالت دولت در اقتصاد هستند و ترامپ در دور دوم ریاست‌جمهوری‌اش تلاش در کوچک‌تر کردن دیوان‌سالاری دولتی با وضع تعرفه‌ها برای حفظ صنایع قدیمی داخلی را دنبال می‌کند (نیری ۲۰۱۹بخش ۳). نیویورک تایمز در برخی مقالاتش تا حدی به‌درستی این سیاست‌ها را مرکانتیلیستی می‌خواند.

در جلسه‌ی کاخ سفید، زلنسکی به عادت همیشگی‌اش خواهان تضمین امنیت اوکراین توسط آمریکا و ترامپ شد، البته ترامپ با گسستن از دکترین ولفوویتز و خواست تنش‌زدایی در رابطه‌ی آمریکا و روسیه از پیش مخالفت‌اش را با عضویت اوکراین در ناتو (که یکی از خواست‌های پوتین هم هست) و قرار گرفتن در یک جبهه با زلنسکی علیه روسیه اعلام کرده بود. ترامپ در ضمن مشاجره با زلنسکی یادآور شد که زلنسکی در موقعیتی نیست که به او و یا به پوتین خواست‌های خودش را تحمیل کند: «شما خود را در موقعیت بدی قرار داده‌اید. شما همه‌ی برگ‌های برنده را در [مذاکره با ما] در دست ندارید. شما دارید با زندگی میلیون‌ها نفر قمار می‌کنید. شما با جنگ جهانی سوم قمار می‌کنید.»

شکاف در امپریالیسم غرب و ناتو

بسیاری از سران کشورهای اروپایی بعد از مشاجره بین ترامپ و زلنسکی حمایت خود را از اوکراین در این جنگ اعلام کردند. اما اتحادیه‌ی اروپا از نظر اقتصادی از آمریکا کوچک‌تر است و درآمد سرانه‌ی کم‌تری دارد و مهم‌تر آن که از نظر نظامی حتی مجموعه‌ی کشورهای اروپایی نیز با آمریکا قابل‌مقایسه نیستند. ادامه‌ی جنگ برای زلنسکی که با مشکل داوطلب برای شرکت در جنگ روبروست بدون کمک آمریکا ممکن نیست. نیمی از مردم اوکراین خواهان پایان جنگ هستند (گالوپ نوامبر ۲۰۲۴). بی‌جهت نیست که فرمانده‌ی ناتو ژنرال مارک روته[۶] بلافاصله از زلنسکی خواست تا با ترامپ رابطه‌ی خوبی ایجاد کند. نخست‌وزیر انگلستان در ملاقات با زلنسکی اعلام کرد که مشترکاً طرح پیشنهادی‌ای برای آتش‌بس در اوکراین برای ترامپ آماده خواهند کرد.

این مشاجره در کاخ سفید نشان از تشدید روند بحران حکومتی در آمریکا است که خود ناشی از افول نسبی امپریالیسم آمریکاست. در دوره‌ی اخیر هر چهار سال که قدرت از یک حزب به حزب دیگر منتقل می‌شد ریاست‌جمهور جدید عمدتاً سیاست‌های رییس‌جمهور قبلی را در مسیری متضاد تغییر داده است. این امر باعث عدم‌ثبات برای ساختن زیربنای اقتصادی می‌شود. به‌عنوان مثال بایدن یارانه‌ای برای خریداران خودرو‌های برقی به وجود آورده بود تا گذر به اقتصادی بر پایه‌ی صنایع و فناوری‌های نوین را هموار کند. شرکت‌های خودرو‌ساز میلیاردها دلار صرف ایجاد ظرفیت برای تولید خودرو‌های برقی کردند. اما ترامپ در همان اوایل کار این یارانه‌ها را حذف کرد و آمریکا را از قرارداد پاریس برای مقابله با بحران اقلیمی خارج کرد.[۷]

بحران رهبری جهانی و آینده‌ی بشر

من در آغاز جنگ اوکراین برخورد به آن را یک دوراهی برای بشر ارزیابی کردم. مردم کارگر نفعی در این جنگ ندارند، ارتش روسیه باید از اوکراین خارج شود و دولت اوکراین باید سیاست بی‌طرفانه در پیش گیرد. دانشمندان در رشته‌های مربوطه اعلام خطر کرده‌اند که اگر بشر بحران‌های وجودی کنونی – بحران اقلیمی، انقراض ششم انواع، افزایش و تشدید همه‌گیری‌های جهانی، و خطر نابودی هسته‌ای – را حل نکند تا آخر این قرن با خطر فروپاشی تمدن و احیاناً نابودی بشریت روبرو خواهد شد. اما حل این بحران‌ها به همکاری همه‌ی جهانیان و بلاخص قدرتمندترین دولت‌ها نیازمند است. بحران افول امپریالیسم آمریکا امکان ایفای نقش رهبری در هیچ یک از این زمینه‌ها را باقی نگذاشته است. بر عکس همراه با قدرت گرفتن چین در سطح جهانی و دیگر قدرت‌های منطقه‌ای رقابت بین قدرت‌های سرمایه‌داری را افزایش داده است. تنها امید بشریت ایجاد قدرت مستقل مردم کارگر در سراسر جهان به‌ویژه در کشور‌های کلیدی در آمریکا، اروپا و آسیا است. برای ایجاد چنین قدرتی لازم است تا از نظر سیاسی از دولت‌ها و هیأت‌های حاکمه و احزاب گسست و تشکیلاتی مستقل بر پایه‌ی سیاست‌های بحران‌زدایی در جهت یک جامعه‌ی فراسرمایه‌داری به  وجود آورد. به نظر من افق یک جامعه‌ی سوسیالیستی زیست‌بوم‌محور به این امر حیاتی 

        .کمک‌ می‌کند


 

[۱] Proxy war

[۲] Rare earth

[۳] این گرایش در حزب جمهوری‌خواه با قدرت گرفتن ترامپ عمدتاً منزوی شده است.

[۴] Isolationism

[۵] Internationalist interventionism

[۶] General Mark Rutte

[۷] البته این قرار داد ضمانت اجرایی ندارد و شواهد امیدوارکننده‌ای از اجرای تعهدات داوطلبانه‌ی کشور‌ها مشاهده نمی‌شود.