Showing posts with label Nuclear weapons. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nuclear weapons. Show all posts

Sunday, June 22, 2025

The Dead End of U.S./Israeli War Against Iran

 By Kamran Nayeri, June 22, 2025


Author's note: What follows is a free translation of an essay I wrote and sent for the online socialist journal Critique of Political Economy (نقد اقتصاد سیاسی) in Iran on June 19. Because of the ongoing Israeli and U.S. attacks, Internet service has been compromised, and the work of an online journal has been delayed. Therefore, this translation appears before the publication of the original Farsi version. Writing about a highly dynamic series of events, such as this war, is a challenging task. Thus, I appeal to the reader to focus on the main line of my argument and forgive any details that may seem less important at this time.  Although I anticipated Trump's decision to attack Iran's nuclear sites, it happened yesterday, a significant event as it brings the U.S. into direct war with the Islamic Republic, which U.S. administrations had avoided since 1979. Clearly, Trump's action has not ended the conflict but elevated it, and it is likely to lead to the Islamic Republic's decision to produce nuclear weapons as a deterrent.  KN.

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A bloody war has broken out between the Zionist colonial-settler State and the Islamic Republic. On Friday, June 13, about 100 fighter jets targeted parts of Iran's nuclear program, including the uranium enrichment facility at Natanz, some missile production sites, and residential neighborhoods in Tehran, and assassinating several commanders of the Guard of the Islamic Revolution (commonly mistranslated as "Revolutionary Guards"), senior politicians and nuclear scientists were assassinated. 

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has declared that he will continue this war "for as long as necessary" to destroy the Islamic Republic's nuclear capabilities. This is a vague and unattainable goal. Israel does not have the means to destroy the Fordow facility, which is deep underground.  As a result, Donald Trump has announced that he will enter the U.S. into this war by using the 30,000-pound "bunker buster" bomb that only B2 bombers can deploy. Trump has also called for the Islamic Republic's "unconditional surrender." 

Thus, a war that started under the pretext of preventing the Islamic Republic from acquiring nuclear weapons has turned into a war to overthrow that regime by U.S. imperialism and the Zionist regime in just a few days. Even though a majority of the American public opposes a U.S. war with Iran, and even part of the coalition that brought Trump to power opposes it, the Democratic Party leaders in Congress seem to support it, as they have not mentioned the constitutional requirement that gives only Congress the power to declare war. 

Thus, the Middle East is facing a long-anticipated war that risks spreading to the region and threatening the region with nuclear contamination. 

 

There is no doubt that Israel's preparations for an invasion of Iran and Donald Trump’s negotiations with the Islamic Republic were a political game to surprise the Iranian regime. The Times of Israel confirmed this fact on the same day Israel attacked Iran (Berman, June 13, 2025). 

The Origin of the War

The Mohammad Reza Pahlavi dictatorship installed by the August 1953 CIA/MI6 coup d’état was overthrown through a year-long mobilization of millions of Iranians, general strikes against it cumulating in the February 1979 insurrection. The Shah's regime and the Israeli state, also created with significant interventions by Britain and the United States, were the bastions of Western imperialism against the Arab revolution and the influence of the Soviet Union in the Middle East. The 1979 revolution dissolved the Cold War military alliance of CENTO. It destroyed the major power in the Middle East that supported the Zionist colonial Settler regime in Palestine and the apartheid regime in South Africa. Western imperialism lost a powerful ally in the Middle East. 

Trusted by the people due to his irreconcilable opposition to Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, Ayatollah Khomeini was able to establish a provisional government. At the same time, he organized the Revolutionary Council, whose members he chose and dominated by his clerical supporters, to lay the foundations for an Islamic government in Iran. In his treatise, Velayat-e Faqih (The Rule of Islamic Jurisprudence) in the early 1970s, Ayatollah Khomeini argued that Muslims everywhere lived under non-Islamic governments and in the absence of Imam Mahdi, the final Twelfth Imam in Twelver Shia Islam, who is believed to be in occultation (hidden) and will reappear someday, a learned ayatollah a group of such ayatollahs can and must form an Islamic government so that Islamic laws can be implemented.  His goal was to achieve the political unity of all Shiites in the Middle East. The Islamic Republic in Iran was established according to this view, and it became the basis of its foreign policy towards Israel, Palestine, the governments in the region, and the United States. 

From the first day after the February 1979 insurrection that toppled Shah's regime, new Islamic institutions and organizations, especially the Guards Corps of the Islamic Revolution (Guards), the Islamic Revolution Committees, and later the Basij of the Dispossessed as a paramilitary organization attached to the Guards formed a vast armed force to protect the Islamic regime. At the same time, the Islamic Regime dissolved or destroyed all grassroots and democratic movements and independent political parties. Thus, an expansionist Islamic capitalist state was formed in Iran by repression of the Iranians and in conflict with regional and world powers. 

On November 4, 1979, Students Following the Imam's Line occupied the U.S. embassy and held 55 of its employee’s hostage for 444 days. Thus, the first set of sanctions against Iran was imposed by the United States. Among these sanctions was the prohibition on the sale of arms to Iran, which effectively eroded its air force, which the Shah had built up by purchasing F-4 fighter jets from the United States, along with training Iranian air force pilots in the United States.  Iran was dependent on the U.S. government and companies for the maintenance and repair of its air force. 

With Saddam Hussein's invasion of Iran and the eight-year war that ensued, the Islamic Republic prioritized the development of a domestic arms industry. Military commentators agree that its drone and missile industries are at the highest level in the Middle East. The experience of eight years of war with Iraq and then cooperation with Islamic military groups in other countries of the Middle East has created a vast and experienced military cadre for the Islamic Republic. 

 

In September 2011, the Bushehr nuclear reactor, designed by the Germans but built by the Russians, was put into operation. The Islamic Republic began a nuclear enrichment program for nuclear reactor fuel and medical uses.  

Iran's nuclear program began in the 1950s after the overthrow of the nationalist government of Mohammad Mossadegh by the CIA and the British MI6 because Mossadegh had nationalized the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company on March 15, 1951.

Mohammad Reza Pahlavi's nuclear program was part of Dwight D. Eisenhower's "Atoms for Peace" program. This program was expanded in the 1970s with plans to install nuclear reactors, but the 1979 revolution disrupted these plans.

The Islamic Republic revived the plan to build a nuclear power plant in Bushehr during the Iran-Iraq War. In 1995, Clinton imposed new sanctions on Iran's nuclear program in response to the Islamic Republic's support for anti-U.S. and anti-Israel Islamic groups, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza Strip. Clinton banned U.S. investment in the energy sectors and trade and investment in Iran. 

 Successive U.S. cabinets have imposed additional sanctions on Iran. 

Colonialism, Imperialism, and the Middle East

The U.S. policy toward Iran and the Middle East is a continuation of the British policy, which controlled a significant part of the Middle East, along with French imperialism, after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire at the end of World War I. 

The League of Nations, formed by four Allied countries after World War I—Britain, France, Italy, and Japan (the United States did not participate) —gave Britain the mandate for Palestine. In 1917, the British laid the groundwork for the creation of Israel in Palestine through the Balfour Declaration.  In a letter from British Foreign Secretary Arthur Balfour to Lord Rothschild, who was a Zionist, he promised to create a "state for the Jewish people" in Palestine. The Rothschilds, who were a Jewish banking and finance family, were considered the richest in the world in the late 19th century. 

At that time, Jews were a small minority in Palestine. 

Zionism as a European Colonial-Settler Ideology

The ideology of Zionism emerged in Central and Eastern Europe as a colonial-settler ideology prevalent in 19th-century Europe in response to waves of antisemitism there. Progressive Jews, of course, were looking for another way to overcome antisemitism. In the mid-19th century, the Young Hegelians raised and discussed the problem of antisemitism. Bruno Bauer in his book The Jewish Question (1843), argued that Jews could only achieve emancipation by abandoning their religious consciousness through the establishment of a secular state. Karl Marx, in "On the Jewish Question" (1843), criticized Bauer's assumption that a secular state solves the problem of religion. Marx pointed to the pervasiveness of religion in the United States, which, unlike Prussia, had a secular state. For Marx, Bauer's mistake was that he did not distinguish between political emancipation and human emancipation. Political emancipation is compatible with holding religious views, which can lead to religious bias. As a result, Marx argued that the liberation of the Jews (and others) from the bondage of religious thought lies in the complete emancipation of humanity, which would ensure the absence of the need for any religion.  Marx, however, acknowledged that human emancipation is impossible "within the framework of the "hitherto existing world order." 

The revolutionary socialist movement adhered to Marx's view on religion and antisemitism.  The relationship between the Bolshevik Party and the "General Jewish Workers' Alliance" (the Bund) serves as an example. The Jewish workers in Lithuania, Poland, and Russia formed the Bund in 1897. The Bolshevik policy of staunchly opposing antisemitism and fighting for a socialist revolution resulted in the revolutionary wing of the Bund splitting and joining the Communist Party. In 1918, the Council of People's Commissars issued a decree condemning all forms of antisemitism and calling on workers and peasants to fight against it.

After Lenin died in 1924, Stalin, who was organizing a bureaucratic counterrevolution, occasionally resorted to antisemitism as his main rival, Leon Trotsky, came from a Ukrainian Jewish family.  In the period that Stalin sought an alliance with Hitler, Stalin again used antisemitism. From late 1944 onwards, Stalin pursued a policy of supporting Zionism. 

In this way, Israel was created with the support of the imperialists and Stalinists. The Stalinist parties continued to support Israel. 

Israel as a Colonial Settler State

Despite the Zionist propaganda that tried to justify the occupation of Palestine based on myths of the return of the Jews to The Promised Land, the Zionist Movement initially had other places for colonization.  For example, in 1903, at the Sixth Zionist Congress, Theodor Herzl, "The Father of Modern Zionism," proposed Uganda as the location of the Jewish state. However, after the First World War (WWI) and the division of the Middle East and North Africa between British and French imperialism, Palestine became part of the British Mandate from 1931 to 1948. Balfour Declaration was initially a promise made in a letter from Arthur James Balfour, Foreign Secretary of the United Kingdom, to Lord Walter Rothschild,  a Zionist tycoon, on November 2, 1917. The Rothschild banking and finance family was considered the wealthiest in nineteenth-century Europe. 

 

Subsequently, Zionists began to migrate to Palestine and acquire land through the purchase and use of force, including terrorism. For example, Irgun, a Zionist paramilitary terrorist force,  was headed by young Menachem Begin, who later became the prime minister of Israel.  

On November 29, 1947, the United Nations, which was dominated by the Allied powers,  voted to divide Palestine into two independent states, one Palestinian and the other Jewish. According to this plan, Jerusalem was declared an international city. The plan was implemented on October 1, 1948, which the Zionists celebrate as "Independence Day." However, the Palestinians and the Arab regimes saw the partition of Palestine as another example of Western imperialism's interference in their land and opposed it. At that time, there were approximately 1,300,000 Palestinian Arabs and 600,000 Jews (some of whom were  Palestinian Jews who thus became citizens of Israel) living in Palestine. 

Thus, the Zionist movement and its imperialist supporters have created a Frankenstein in the Promised Land: a reliable military base of Western imperialism located in the heart of the Middle East and North Africa. 

According to the Federation of American Scientists, Israel began a push to acquire nuclear weapons immediately right after it was established. The search for uranium began in 1949, and the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission was established in 1952. On October 3, 1957, France and Israel signed an agreement to build a 24-megawatt reactor (although the cooling systems and nuclear waste facilities were designed for a reactor with three times this capacity), all under the guise of establishing a chemical plant. All this was carried out secretly outside the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspection regime.  In 1968,  the CIA published a report on Israel's nuclear weapons production. Although the United States was aware of Israel's nuclear ambitions and activities, as a strategic ally in the Middle East, it was allowed to join the small group of states with nuclear weapons (the Nuclear Club). 

While Israel is a member of the IAEA, it is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). This is a significant difference because membership in the IAEA gives Israel access to certain benefits and services related to nuclear technologies and fosters international nuclear cooperation. Failure to sign the NPT means that Israel will not be subject to full inspections by the IAEA.  As such, the Israeli government neither officially denies nor acknowledges the possession of nuclear weapons.  Currently, Israel receives $3.8 billion in military aid from the United States annually. Although a UN resolution created Israel, it has never been reprimanded by the United Nations for repeated violations of international law thanks to the veto power of the United States in the Security Council. Israel was a staunch supporter of the apartheid regime in South Africa but has opposed any anti-imperialist and revolutionary movement in the Middle East and around the world.  It has supported the U.S. war in Indochina but opposed the Nicaraguan Revolution of 1979   and is one of the few countries that voted against the U.S. lifting the embargo at the annual meeting of the United Nations General Assembly. 

Thus, the cause of Jews fleeing anti-Semitism in Europe and the Nazi Holocaust, especially those who came to Palestine with socialist ideals, has been betrayed by Zionist leaders. Worse still, many of them have become racist oppressors who serve colonial and imperialist interests while opposing the Palestinian movement for self-determination and the Arab revolution.

In contrast, Iran is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The treaty was signed in 1968 and ratified in 1970 by the Shah's regime. However, due to the hostility of the United States and Western imperialism after the 1979 revolution, numerous concerns and reports about Iran's compliance with the safeguards and obligations of the treaty have been raised to oppose Iran's use of nuclear energy, a right given to other states.

Why Israel and the U.S. are allowed to have a nuclear program and nuclear bombs, but Iran is not even allowed to enrich uranium for peaceful means? 

Did not the Islamic Republic sign the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), signed on July 14, 2015, with the P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) to allow for regular inspection of Iran's nuclear activities to ensure it is for peaceful means? Why did Israel oppose the treaty, and Trump tore it apart? 

Ten years ago, after the signing of the JCPOA, I wrote in an article titled "Their milk wins, our line loses":

"The July 14 agreement between 5+1 and the Islamic Republic reflects the balance of power between Iran and imperialism, headed by the United States.  America's pyrrhic victory in the Gulf wars and subsequent rise and unraveling of the Arab Spring has resulted in region-wide instability where extremist Islamic organizations like Al-Quada and Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) that routinely use terror have gained ground.  Meanwhile, the influence of the Islamic Republic has increased in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and the Gaza Strip.  The Islamic Republic has been an ascending force in the region whose interests have coincided with those of the U.S. when Washington invaded and occupied Afghanistan and Iraq and now that both regimes are engaged in the fight against ISIS.  At the same time, a majority of the Islamic Republic's regime realizes that their immediate interests in dismantling the sanctions regime and pursuing economic development, as well as their strategic regional ambitions, are best served by reaching an understanding with the United States.  Thus, the Iran nuclear agreement is a win-win for American imperialism and its allies and the clerical capitalist Islamic Republic.  However, it would be a mistake to suppose that the agreement will prevent future wars—conflicts can arise over implementation, and the balance of power can change in the future, making Iran vulnerable again.  Nor would the agreement make the Middle East and the world safer from nuclear "accidents" or nuclear wars (emphasis added, Nayeri, 2015)."

Israel's war against Iran has now confirmed my argument that the agreement signed ten years ago is no longer possible due to changing power relations in the region. As Israeli and American policymakers have repeatedly insisted, the Islamic Republic has never been as politically weak as it is today. The dictatorship of Bashir al-Assad in Syria, which was an ally of the Islamic Republic, has been overthrown, and the current Sunni Syrian regime prefers closer ties with Washington and has stayed quiet in the Israeli attack on Iran. Armed forces allied with the Islamic Republic, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, have been weakened, and their influence in Iraq has diminished. By creating a tyrannical clerical capitalist regime, oppressing women, religious minorities, oppressed nationalities, interfering in the private lives of citizens, suppressing any independent organization, suppressing all forms of protest, attacking, imprisoning, torturing, and executing its critics and opponents, the Islamic Republic has been discredited in the eyes of most Iranians and the world public opinion.  Adherence to neoliberal policies and the inability to manage the economy, according to official accounts, 40 percent of the population lives below the poverty line. The 1979 revolution made it possible for the redistribution of income, which elevated the lot of many poorer Iranians, but this proved temporary, and now deep class divisions and government corruption are evident everywhere. 

 

The key motivation for the Islamic Republic's negotiations with the United States has been the lifting of sanctions to reduce the economic crisis. The regime used uranium enrichment as a bargaining chip to reduce, if not end, economic sanctions. 

Thus, the Islamic government project undertaken by Ayatollah Khomeini has reached a dead end. 

This situation provided Israel and the United States an opportunity to launch a military attack on Iran with an eye on the possibility of overthrowing the Islamic Republic. However, unlike Syria, where an alternative force had been established over the years, there is no such an alternative existing in Iran. 

Furthermore, both Israel and the United States are in relative decline. As the year and a half of Israel's genocidal war in Gaza shows, despite killing more than 55,000 Palestinians, injuring nearly 120,000, and displacing the majority of the inhabitants of Gaza, Israel has not yet been able to win the release of all its hostages or defeat Hamas. Israel is politically isolated and more isolated in public opinion than at any time in the past, as its prime minister, Netanyahu, is wanted by the International Court for war crimes. Zionism has proven a dead-end as much as political Islam. 

U.S. imperialism has been facing a relative decline, particularly against the rising power of China as a global power, while it has been challenged by regional powers such as Russia in Ukraine, Iran in the Middle East, and China in the Pacific region. The second election of Trump as president demonstrated the increasing polarization within the political class, as every four years, the newly elected president cancels many of the policies implemented by his predecessor. This trend is entirely the opposite of what the U.S. economic ruling class needs. 

 

The Ecocentric Socialist Alternative 

The 1979 Revolution was suppressed and eventually crushed by 1983 through Ayatollah Khomeini's project of Velayat-e Faqih (rule of Islamic jurisprudence), which aimed to establish and consolidate the Islamic Republic. At least two generations of Iranians were demoralized in the process: the generation of the 1979 Revolution and the generation that was born and grew up after the Islamic Republic came to power. The former was mainly a victim of despair due to defeat, and the latter has been a victim of ignorance regarding the reality of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi's dictatorship, the secular nature of the 1979 revolution, and the reasons for its failure. Out of ignorance about the democratic anti-imperialist goals of the revolution, this generation holds the revolutionaries responsible for the creation and crimes of the Islamic Republic even though they were the first victims of this regime. As a result, some of them have been attracted to the propaganda of the United States, the remnants of the regime of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, and even Israel. These same people have become anti-Arab and anti-Palestinian, an echo of the Fars nationalism of the Pahlavi monarchy. 

However, the 1979 Revolution was a great historical movement for independence, freedom, and social justice (استقلال، آزادی، عدالت اجتماعی). It was a movement that had the potential to create the broadest and deepest form of democracy based on the grassroots movements of workers, peasants, oppressed nationalities, youth, and students. Of course, these organizations had weaknesses and flaws.  However, had they not been dissolved or suppressed by the Islamic Republic, it would have been entirely possible for them to develop as the basis of a government of the people, by the people, and for the people, establishing the first democratic government in Iran's history. 

 

In the Russian socialist revolution of October 1917, it was this process that determined the socialist character of the revolution, not merely the leadership of the Bolsheviks and the nationalization of the economic infrastructure. As Lenin remarked: 

"The socialist character of Soviet, i.e., proletarian, democracy, as concretely applied today, lies first in the fact that the electors are the working and exploited people; the bourgeoisie is excluded. Secondly, it lies in the fact that all bureaucratic formalities and restrictions of elections are abolished; the people themselves determine the order and time of elections, and are completely free to recall any elected person. Thirdly, it lies in the creation of the best mass organization of the vanguard of the working people, i.e., the proletariat engaged in large-scale industry, which enables it to lead the vast mass of the exploited, to draw them into independent political life, to educate them politically by their own experience; therefore for the first time a start is made by the entire population in learning the art of administration, and in the beginning to administer (Lenin, April 1918).”

Policy Framework

Even if the working people take over state power, the question still arises as to what framework should be adopted for policymaking. 

Some Native Indian tribes used a golden rule: choose a policy that will be good for the next seven generations. As the Native Americans considered themselves an inseparable part of nature, the good policy must also be good for the ecosystem of which we are a small part. 

In addition to a consistent policy to create the infrastructure for democracy from below, Iran's economic structure must change to create a society that is compatible with the well-being of its people and the ecosystem of the Middle East and the world, ensuring social justice. The current war demonstrates the dead-end of Islamic fundamentalism, Zionism, and imperialism. However, we know that the world is facing several existential crises, such as global warming and climate chaos, the Sixth Extinction, recurrent pandemics, and nuclear annihilation. The root cause is the anthropocentric industrial capitalist civilization. 

Science and technology are not value-free. They have been, especially since the Scientific Revolution of the 17th century, instruments for the domination and control of nature, allowing for its plunder for wealth and power (Nayeri, 2021). The fossil fuel-based economy contradicts the need for a transition to a green economy in every way.  Nuclear technology, whether for energy or nuclear weapons, is inherently dangerous to the ecosystem and life on the planet  (Friends of the Earth undated). As the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster in March 2011 and the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki by the United States in August 1945 demonstrated. As the recent conflict between Pakistan and India showed and, the danger posed by bombing Iran's nuclear facilities by Israel and possibly the United States demonstrates.  Progress toward a healthier, safer, and better world requires the elimination of all nuclear weapons and nuclear energy.  

Here, I am only referring to the climate crisis in the Middle East. In 2023, the United Nations Climate Change Risk Assessment Group published a report on the future of the Middle East and North Africa. The World Bank provided an analysis of its economic impact (World Bank 2023).

The World Bank predicts that if climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions is not prevented, real annual GDP in countries in the Middle East and North Africa will decline by 1.1% by mid-century, and poor and vulnerable families will increasingly bear the resulting damage. Despite the unique characteristics of the needs and facilities for water, energy, and food security in the countries of the region, their interdependencies are the only way out of this crisis that requires their cooperation. Structural challenges, primarily related to the lack of financial resources, inadequate reforms, and limited resources, as well as the lack of commitment from capitalist state institutions, increase the likelihood of exacerbating the vulnerabilities caused by climate change in countries in the Middle East and North Africa.

The solutions proposed by the UN research group, including the "green transition" from existing fossil economies to one based on renewable energy (mainly solar and wind), will significantly reduce the costs of electricity generation. Such a transition would entail economic benefits, energy security, and long-term financial and job creation advantages. Eliminating oil and gas flaring and reducing methane emissions in oil and gas-producing countries could lead to significant economic benefits while also reducing greenhouse gas emissions. 

Another scientific study was published this week (Santer et al., 2025) that provides evidence that the onset of atmospheric warming could have been documented as early as 1880. In fact, in 1896, the Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius had shown that the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere had doubled. Today, there is no longer any doubt that atmospheric warming and the climate crisis are caused by the emissions of greenhouse gases resulting from human-centered industrial capitalist civilization (Nayeri, April 2023). 

Of course, the United Nations research group does not address the human-centered industrial capitalist civilization as the root cause of the climate disaster. The United Nations is, in fact, the organization of non-allied capitalist states, not an independent organization of united working people. 

A group of academics and environmentalists has long argued that the current system pursues unlimited economic growth while providing us with limited possibilities on the planet we live on. The confluence of these two realities is the cause of ecosystem crises. Some of them have created the degrowth movement. Unfortunately, most of them do not realize that growth in the capitalist system is driven by the system's need for capital accumulation, and the accumulation of capital depends on profit, which is only possible by creating surplus value (Nayeri, 2022). However, contrary to Marxist belief, the source of surplus value is not only the exploitation of the worker but also the plundering of non-human nature (Nayeri, December 2023). 

As a result, the only way out of the existential crises and other social problems, including the wars in the Middle East, is to transition to Ecocentric Socialism. This vision and goal also represent a redefinition of the type of human life free from all forms of alienation in a society where money and power deteriorate as quickly as love for nature and human solidarity become part of our daily lives.

In Iran, this process will require the rejection of imperialism, Zionism, and religious dictatorship to open a window to the final emancipation of humanity.

References:

Bruno Bauer. The Jewish Question. 1843.

Berman, Lazar. “How an Israeli-American Deception Campaign Lulled Iran into a False Sense of Security.” Times of Israel, June 13, 2025.

Bruno Bauer. The Jewish Question. 1843.

Friends of the Earth. “Is Nuclear Power Bad for the Earth? No date.

Lenin, V.I. “The Immediate Tasks of the Soviet Government.” April 1918.

Marx, Karl. On the Jewish Question. 1843.

Nayeri, Kamran. “Heads They Win, Tails We Lose: On Iran Nuclear Agreement.” Our Place in the World: A Journal of Ecosocialism. August 12, 2015.

______________. “The Case for Ecocentric Socialism.” Our Place in the World: A Journal of Ecosocialism. July 22, 2021.

______________. “On Degrowth.”  Our Place in the World: A Journal of Ecosocialism. July 24, 2021.

______________. “The Labor Theory of Value and Exploitation of Nonhumans: The Case of the Meat Industry.”  Our Place in the World: A Journal of Ecosocialism. December 31, 2022..

______________. “The Anthropocentric Industrial Capitalist Civilization and Ecological Crises.” Our Place in the World: A Journal of Ecosocialism. April 1, 2023..

Santer, Benjamin, Susan Salmon, David W. I. Thomason, Yaowei Li. “Human influence on climate detectable in the late 19th century.” PANS, June 16, 202.

World Bank. MENA Country Climate and Development Report: Climate change Action in the Middle East and North Africa (key insights from the reports).November 2023. 

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Heads They Win, Tails We Lose: On Iran Nuclear Agreement

By Kamran Nayeri, August 2, 2015
This was a nuclear industry advertisement with the slogan: "Nuclear Energy, Today's Answer." 
There has been much written about the Iran nuclear agreement signed in Vienna on July 14. Everything I have read, and I have read many from all sides, is mostly from an “international relations” perspective; their analysis focuses on which states will be winners or losers and how power relations among states may change in the Middle East if  the agreement is ratified in the U.S. and in Iran (Security Council has already ratified it). Further, the negotiating parties have stated that the agreement makes the Middle East and the world safer.  That is far from the truth. 

Nuclear technology for energy or for weapons is inherently and extremely dangerous to people and the planet as the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster in March 2011 and American atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945 have clearly shown.  The progress toward a healthier, safer and better world requires elimination of all nuclear weapons and nuclear power.  While it is true that this agreement if adhered to may postpone military confrontation between U.S. and its allies and Iran, it is not true that working people in Iran, United States and elsewhere are safer and should lend their support to it. In fact, none of the participating governments in the negotiations represent the best interest of their people or the planet. 

To understand the nuclear agreement reached between the UN Security Council permanent members and Germany (5+1) and Iran we must recall who the negotiating parties represented and how the agreement was reached.

The Nuclear Club
According to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute there are nine countries in the world today with nuclear weapons. In order of the year of first nuclear test and number of their current weapons they are: United States (1945, currently has 7,260 nuclear weapons), Russia (1949, 7,500), United Kingdom (1952, 215), France (1960, 300), China (1964, 260), India (1974, 90-110), Pakistan (1998, 100-120), Israel (no firm date available, 80), and North Korea (2006, 6-8).   Furthermore, the top four members of the Nuclear Club have thousands of these weapons deployed for use: U. S. (2,080 deployed weapons), Russia (1,780), U. K.  (150) and France (290).  Needless to say, even if a small fraction of these weapons are used the entire world will be annihilated. 

Israel’s nuclear program is important in considering Iranian nuclear ambitions given the threat Israel has posed to the region. At a colonial-settler expansionist Jewish State at perpetual war with the indigenous peoples of the Middle East, it long has possessed nuclear weapons.  Yet, like its policy of colonialism and war it has never been held accountable by the Security Council and the United States for its refusal to join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty or for its nuclear weapons. 

According to the Federation of American Scientists, Israel began pursuit of nuclear weapons right after its establishment in 1948. It began search for uranium in 1949 and Israel Atomic Energy Commission (IAEC) was founded in 1952. On October 3, 1957, France and Israel signed an agreement to build a 24 MWt reactor (although the cooling systems and waste facilities were designed to handle three times that power) and, in protocols that were not committed to paper, a chemical reprocessing plant. This complex was constructed in secret, and outside the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspection regime.  In 1968, the CIA issued a report about Israel’s successful production of nuclear weapons. Although United States was aware of Israel’s nuclear ambitions and activities it turned a blind eye allowing its strategic ally in the Middle East to join the Nuclear Club outside the purview of the IAEA.

Advantages of membership in the Nuclear Club
Of course, there is significant advantage in belonging to the Nuclear Club and a disadvantage not to belonging to it.  For instance, in her 2008 bid to become the Democratic Party presidential candidate in 2008 Hillary Clinton threatened Iran with nuclear obliteration (The Guardian, April 22, 2008). Such dangerously bellicose demagogy was possible because the U.S. has nuclear weapons and Iran does not.  International relations in the capitalist world are power relations in which military might matters and possession of nuclear weapons offer a definite edge as the history of nuclear weapons proliferation shows.

United States developed the first atomic weapons during World War II with cooperation from the United Kingdom and Canada as part of the Manhattan Project. It tested the first nuclear weapon in 1945 (“Trinity”).   The U. S. then used atomic bombs against the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasakikilling and wounding an estimated 150,000  and 75,000 respectively.  In 1952, the U.S. tested the first hydrogen bomb ("Ivy Mike") and a deployable weapon in 1954 ("Castle Bravo").  Using nuclear weapons in Japan has been “defended” as a decision to end the war quickly.  However, it is also a fact that United States used its possession of nuclear weapons as a strategic edge against the Soviet Union in the Cold War which initiated the nuclear arms race. 

Those in the Nuclear Club have a strong incentive to bar other states from obtaining nuclear arms: the fewer states in the Nuclear Club the more non-nuclear states who are militarily at gross disadvantage.  Thus, South Africa after apartheid as well as former Soviet republics of Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan were persuaded to give up their nuclear weapons. 

Thus, the 5+1 negotiators with Iran were not working to make the world safer from nuclear weapons but to maintain their own nuclear edge, in particular the nuclear edge of the colonial-settler Zionist regime in the Middle East.  In fact, the United States is currently undertaking a three-decade one trillion dollar program to update its nuclear arsenal. (William J. Broad and David E. Sanger, “U.S. Ramping Up Major Renewal in Nuclear Arms,” The New York Times, September 21, 2014)  The raucous debate between the Israeli government and its Republican and Democratic backers and the Obama administration is in large part about the best way to ensure Israeli’s nuclear edge in the Middle East and to contain Islamic Republic’s influence in the region.  Of course, it is also about the U.S.'s own strategic interests. 

The Iranian revolution of 1979
To understand what and who the Islamic Republic represents it is necessary to recall the Iranian revolution of February 1979, what it represented and what happened to it.  The Iranian revolution was the largest urban mass uprising since the 1917 Russian revolution. It changed that strategic relation of forces in the Middle East to the detriment of imperialism. In 1953, the Shah’s regime had been imposed by the CIA coup that overthrew the democratically elected nationalist government of Mohammad Mossadegh. The revolution overthrew imperialism’s regional gendarme, an ally of the colonial-settler state of Israel, and a supporter of South African Apartheid. It dissolved the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO), a regional anti-Soviet military pact.

No political party or individual led the February insurrection that overthrow the Shah’s regime. In the year leading up to it grassroots organizations took shape in the neighborhoods, workplaces, high schools and universities, and among peasants and oppressed nationalities, and eventually in the armed forces, posing a challenge to the Shah’s power structure. Workers began to exert control over workplaces. Peasant moved to take the land they had tiled for centuries; closely tied to this oppressed nationalities began to revive their cultural heritage and exercise regional autonomy in Kurdistan and Turkmen Sahra. Universities became centers of political discourse. Neighborhoods were organized through popular committees to distribute scarce fuel and food. Political parties, including the banned socialist groups, began to function increasingly openly. Oil workers staged a nationwide strike that paralyzed the regime. Finally, as the discipline in the armed forces began to crumble and the Royal Guard attacked Homafaran’s (an officers rank in Shah’s air force) barracks who had gone to the side of the revolution in Tehran, the population armed itself and overthrew the monarchy in three days of insurrections across the country.

It was entirely possible for Iranians to inaugurate the first workers and peasant government in the Middle East and open the road to socialism. Instead Ayatollah Khomeini, who had opposed the Shah’s capitalist modernist reforms in 1963, including woman suffrage, and was subsequently arrested and exiled to Iraq, captured the moment and established himself as the spokesperson for the revolution. By 1983, Khomeini had used populist demagogy and ruthless repression to suppress all independent mass organizations and practically all political parties to consolidate a theocratic capitalist Islamic Republic regime. Thus, the Islamic Republic offers a historically reactionary response to imperialism in Iran and in the Middle East. (For an outline of this history see Nayeri and Nasab, “The Rise and Fall of the 1979 Iranian Revolution:  Its Lessons for Today,” 2006)

Islamic Republic’s nuclear ambitions
The Shah’s regime was among more than a dozen states that have attempted to join the Nuclear Club but gave it up for various reasons. (See, Steven Pinker, The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined, 2011, Figure 5-22).” 

The Iranian nuclear program began as part of President Eisenhower’s Atoms for Peace program launched in 1953.  The first three reactors built under this program were for its close allies in the region: Israel, Iran and Pakistan. As part of its domestic and regional ambitions the Islamic Republic continued Shah’s nuclear program. It currently possesses several research sites, two uranium mines, a research reactor, and uranium processing facilities that include three known uranium enrichment plants. Also, Iran's first nuclear power plant that was started by the Shah’s regime in the 1970s, Bushehr I reactor, was completed with major assistance of Russian government agency Rosatom and officially opened in September 2011. Iran has announced that it is working on a new 360 MW nuclear power plant to be located in Darkhovin. Islamic Republic has also indicated that it will seek more medium-sized nuclear power plants and uranium mines in the future. 

American and Western claim that the Islamic Republic has been pursuing building a nuclear weapons has never been built on facts.  Iran has signed treaties repudiating the possession of weapons of mass destruction including the Biological Weapons Convention, the Chemical Weapons Convention, and theNuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).  Even the 2007 U. S. National Intelligence Estimate assessed that Iran had ended all "nuclear weapon design and weaponization work" in 2003.  In 2012, U.S. intelligence agencies reported that Iran was pursuing research that could enable it to produce nuclear weapons, but was not attempting to do so.  Thus, the nuclear sanctions regime impose on Iran should be seen as part of the long campaign to overthrow the Islamic Republic that began in 1979 to impose a regime friendly to the West.  

For its own domestic and regional interests, the Israeli regime has declared the Iranian nuclear program an “existential threat” and together with the Bush administration demanded that it should be dismantled entirely.   Realizing that the Iranian scientists and engineers have already mastered the entire nuclear cycle and that a military option to eradicate the Islamic Republic nuclear program was not feasible and risked wider war in the Middle East, Obama administration intensified the sanctions regime while opening up negotiations with the Islamic Republic.  According to the U.S. State Department: 
“Acting both through the United Nations Security Council and regional or national authorities, the United States, the member states of the European Union, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Canada, Australia, Norway, Switzerland, and others have put in place a strong, inter-locking matrix of sanctions measures relating to Iran's nuclear, missile, energy, shipping, transportation, and financial sectors.”  
The social and economic effects of sanctions have been severe. Even the war mongering George W. Bush’s ambassador to the UN, John Bolton, described the EU sanctions, in particular, as "tough, even brutal.” Impact of the recent sanctions have been particularly harsh for ordinary Iranians as the rial was devalued by more than 80% placing many imported products including some food items and domestically made products with imported materials or parts outside the reach of most consumers. Inflation and unemployment skyrocketed, stagflation set in. Although medicine and medical equipments are not sanctioned, they have become hard to obtain resulting in much suffering and some death. 

The July 14 agreement between 5+1 and the Islamic Republic reflects the balance of power between Iran and imperialism, headed by the United States.  America’s pyrrhic victory in the Gulf wars and subsequent rise and unravelling of the Arab Spring have resulted in region-wide instability where extremist Islamic organizations like Al-Quada and Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) that routinely use terror have gained grounds.  Meanwhile, the influence of the Islamic Republic has increased in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Gaza Strip.  The Islamic Republic has been an ascending force in the region whose interests has coincided with those of the U.S. when Washington invaded and occupied Afghanistan and Iraq and now that both regimes are engaged in the fight against ISIS.  At the same time, a majority in the Islamic Republic regime realize that their immediate interest to dismantle the sanctions regime and pursue economic development as well as their strategic regional ambitions are best served in reaching an understanding with the United States.  Thus, the Iran nuclear agreement is a win-win for American imperialism and its allies and the clerical capitalist Islamic Republic.  However, it would be a mistake to suppose that the agreement will stop future wars—conflicts can arise over implementation and the balance of power can change in the future making Iran again vulnerable.  Nor would the agreement make the Middle East and the world safer from nuclear “accidents” or nuclear wars.

For a nuclear free Middle East, for a nuclear free world
Most Iranians welcomed the new of the agreement and some celebrated it in the streets.  They are relieved that the threat of an American attack is lessened for the foreseeable future and hope that gradual easing of the sanctions regime will improve their daily lives. They also welcome the prospects of a better relations with the West.  The fact that Iranian scientists and engineers have mastered the nuclear cycle is a source of national pride.  The Iranian socialist groups and the incipient environmentalist movement have been silent about the dangers posed by the Islamic Republic nuclear program while also opposing imperialist threats, sanctions and attempts to impinge upon Iranian sovereignty. There has been little discussion about, let alone making demands for, a transition to clean renewable energy instead of relaying on fossil fuels and nuclear power in Iran.* 

These are in part due to the defeat of the 1979 revolution at the hands of the Islamic Republic regime that has resulted in mass demoralization of the older generation and mass disorientation of the generation that followed.  Still, Iranian working people are relatively in better position to chart a road forward than all other countries of the Middle East, save perhaps Turkey.  This too is due to the relatively further economic and social development and the potential of learning the lessons of the 1979 revolution when power resided in the hands of the working people, albeit for a short time.  Remembering these lessons are important not only for the working people of Iran but also throughout the region.  Had the Egyptian revolutionaries learned the lessons of the rise and fall of the Iranian revolution it would have been unlikely that Mubarakism could have returned to Egypt with a coup. The Iranian revolution affirmed that society and economy function because of us the working people and can be changed to serve the wellbeing of humanity and the planet if we self-organize to wield it ourselves directly.  In fact, during the revolution grassroots movements began to tackle problems that required solutions that required transcending capitalism before they were crushed by the Islamic Republic. However, the nuclear issue was not part of our discussions then. The revival of the Shah’s nuclear program by the Islamic Republic and the planetary crisis make it imperative to add to our demands:  “For a Nuclear Free Iran!; For a Nuclear Free Middle East!; For a Nuclear Free World!”

* Postscript: Mihan (Motherland), a Farsi language bimonthly e-magazine published abroad, devoted its July-August issue to "The Experience of the Nuclear File: Industry, Negotiations, Conclusion." Of the eighteen contributors only one, Isa Saharkhiz, an Islamic Republic reformer, notes as an aside dangers posed by the nuclear industry and the need for Iran to move to clean renewables. Only one, Farzaneh Roostaee, another reformist journalist, took notice of the hypocrisy of the U.S. and its allies who claim to be working towards nuclear non-proliferation. The contributors mostly ranged in their political perspectives from Islamic Republic reformists to reformist socialists.  For a sample of non-reformist socialist views  see the statement of the Communist Party of Iran and the statement of the Worker-Communist Party of Iran. Both argue that the agreement represents a defeat for the Islamic Republic, neither make criticize it for its continuation Shah's nuclear program as intently hazardous to people and the environment. KN. August 4, 2014. 

References:
Broad, William J. and David E. Sanger. "U.S. Rampin Up Major Renewal in Nuclear Weapons," The New York Times, September 21, 2014. 
MacAskill, Ewen. "'Obliteration' Threat to Iran in Case of Nuclear Attack," The Guardian, April 22, 2008.
Mihan. "The Experience of the Nuclear File: Industry, Negotiation, Conclusion." July 2015.
Nayeri, Kamran and Alireza Nasab. "The Rise and Fall of the 1979 Iranian Revolution: Its Lessons for Today," April, 2006. 
Pinker, Steven. The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined, Penguin Books, 2011.